Infotopia Thoughts

While I did enjoy Sunstein's discussion of both the fallibility of deliberative groups and the abilities of markets like predictions markets to accurately gauge the probability of future events, I did have a few issues with the way he presented the information. To me, the book seemed to be advocating an "infotopian" future primarily built around software like wikis alongside prediction markets in order to gauge what will probably happen alongside the abandonment of deliberation. Why is deliberation so much worse than markets, though?

Consider Sunstein's primary quibbles with deliberation: the problems of the overvaluing of common knowledge (the hidden profile) and the aggregation of bias, as well as increased extremism after deliberation. All three of them are just as evident, if not exacerbated, in market settings. Markets fail the hidden profile test abysmally since the emphasis is on reading other people and valuing their information equally to their own, making common information far more valuable than specialized information to the overall market. It's more important to know what everyone else knows than what each individual player knows.

Bias in markets can also aggregate as we covered in class. This systematic movement towards extremes is very similar to what occurs in deliberative settings, with the most influential members of the market wielding power to shift the final price up and down just as the most influential deliberators frequently move the whole group towards their views. The problem of positive feedback adds to this significantly as evidenced by the dotcom bubble and the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Essentially, I think Sunstein slights deliberation while overpraising the wisdom of the market.